Today was the drawing to determine the initial 4 groups of four teams to start competition in next year's European Championship tournament in Poland and the Ukraine. These are the groups that were drawn:
A: Poland, Greece, Russia, Czech Republic (31.5)
B: Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Portugal (5.75)
C: Spain, Italy, Ireland, Croatia (9.75)
D: Ukraine, Sweden, France, England. (23.25)
The numbers in brackets indicate the average team ranking for each group according to the current FIFA rankings (overall, not restricted to Europe, which exaggerates the differences somewhat). The extraordinary spread results from the fact that Poland and the Ukraine, the two lowest-ranked teams in the competition, qualified as host nations and were seated ahead of powerhouses such as Germany and England. Result: We have the mother of all groups of death in group B, where the lowest-ranked team is ranked higher than the highest-ranked team in group A.
Some implications in my comment...
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'Warm Tips' in the wild
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In 2010, I 'played' the World Cup tournament after the initial groups had been established, using the FIFA rankings of each team at that time and assigning a victory always to the higher-ranked team in each match. This exercise predicted one semi-final correctly (Spain-Germany) and one finalist (Spain). The other half of the draw was off b/c Brazil was ranked too hight compared to their actual performance. Still, it's an interesting exercise. So, let's see how it plays out for Euro 2012.
It predicts a final Spain-Netherlands. However, this assumes that the Netherlands win group B, but that is not certain at all, given that Germany is a close third in the current ranking and beat the Netherlands in recent friendly handily 3:0. So, if we assume Germany wins Group B, the predicted final will be Spain-Germany. In each case, Spain will meet the second in Group B in the semi-finals. The upshot is that it is extremely important not only to survive Group B, of course, but to actually win it.
I also have to add that it is not clear at all that Germany and the Netherlands will take the top 2 spots in that group b/c the other two teams are good enough to give those favorites a hard time on any given day. But however the cookie crumbles, it will be nail-biting time, and that's how it is supposed to be.
...nor is it a given that Spain will win their group C, given the strength of that group, of course. As I said, it's just an exercise to tease out some of salient aspects of the tournament based on the starting groups.
Here's a comment I found interesting on a chat during the drawing: "The Euro Cup is more demanding than the World Cup b/c there are no cream puffs among the qualified teams."
I would add that the 3 top-ranked teams in the world are currently from Europe, as are 11 teams out of the top 15, and all of those qualified for Euro 2012. Switzerland, at #17, is the highest-ranked European team that did not qualify.
Hi Urlich, it is nice to chat about football again :) I must say that although I agree with your last comment about the play standard being higher at Euro than at World Cup, the downside is that teams tend to play conservatively because every match is highly contested, and thus tend to have less exciting play and less scoring. However, the technical aspects, for those of us who appreciate them, makes up for all that. I'm looking forward to watching it.
Yes, Magd. After all, neither my wife nor our assorted cats have shown too much interest in soccer.
As to your comment: I'm not so sure in the case of the Germans. We had the "Klinsmann Revolution" in 2006 that turned the typical German game--plodding, defense-oriented, and often dull--on its head, to the degree that the defense (the goalie excepted) is now the weakest part of the German game. Whereas we have at least two credible starters--and sometimes more than two--for every position in midfield and the offense, we have not a single one for right back--whoever will play there will do this not because he is the best choice, but because we have no one better. And the two center back positions are contested between just three players, one of whom (Mertesacker) isn't even in form right now. So, the Germans know that they must keep the ball away from their defense and must score goals.
BTW They lost the semi-final to Spain in the last World Cup not because they were too defensive, but because they had too much respect. This will not happen again--they are all two years older (and wiser?) now, and two of them (Özil and Khedira--now these are nice Germanic names:) are playing in the top Spanish league week after week--this should have taught them a thing or two.
@Ulrich: will you not be in Germany? Charlie just mentioned that we should be in Holland during the European Cup! I'm happy to go anytime (except for maybe December and January).
@mac: In all likelihood, I will be in Cologne. Which is close to Holland--so, perhaps we could consider watching Holland/Germany together?
Ulrich, read Joon Pakhs facebook article. If you are not a friend of his, I will share it to my page. I wonder how much betting is going on on soccer...
I'm not a friend--could you e-mail me the link or post it here?
I know that there is a lot of betting--after all, a good portion of the live-streams I watch every week to see Bundesliga matches are supported by (legal) betting. And one can be sure, wherever large sums of money are at stake, criminals will find a way of getting a piece of the action.
BTW I got David Goldblatt's The Ball is Round. A Global History of Soccer last xmas from a friend. Essential reading if you are interested in the history of the game. His critique of Havelange and Blattner at the helm of FIFA is absolutely withering, and I believe the systemic corruption they introduced into that body is, perhaps, more damaging in the long run than game-fixing by criminal gangs.
I seriously doubt Holland will be a serious contender. I believe it will be between Spain and Germany, and I agree, this time we will see a much more mature German team. They played some of the best football in the last world cup, and I sense that the Spanish team is slowing down just a little bit. We'll see :)
What makes me nervous is that the Germans now openly declare "We want to win the Cup." it's understandable--they haven't won anything since 1996, and they do have their best team in decades (the less than stellar defense notwithstanding). But still, I don't like this bragging up-front--remember England in 2010? They had declared themselves World Champions before the tournament had even started, and look where they ended...
...there's a difference, though: The English said, "We WILL win the Cup." The Germans are only saying, "We WANT TO win the cup."
Yes, but that English declaration was more wishful thinking than an actual prediction :) The English team only had two high level players (Rooney and Gerard), the rest were just decent, which doesn't really warrant that overconfidence. My only concern about the German team is defense as you have mentioned. It is tough for a team with a weak defense to win that many consecutive matches against top teams. But these days, except for Spain, Germany and Holland, no other team strikes me as one with a strong offense. Spain will clearly be the team to beat. They are the most complete team I've ever seen.
Let's not forget: We have a world-class goalie (Manuel Neuer) and a really good left back (the captain, Philipp Lahm, which actually means "lame" in German :)--remember Ziege, the goat?
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